NFL betting has three primary markets: moneyline, spread and total (over/under points scored).
Moneyline is a straight win/loss bet with no handicap. Decimal odds of 1.55 on the favourite return €15.50 for a €10 stake. Underdogs carry higher odds — a 2.50 return gives €25 on €10.
Point spread is the dominant NFL market. The favourite gives points; the underdog receives them. A line of "Chiefs -6.5 vs Raiders" means the Chiefs must win by 7 or more for a spread bet on them to win. The half-point hook (6.5 rather than 6) eliminates the push. Key numbers in NFL are 3 (a field goal) and 7 (a touchdown plus conversion) — lines that cross these numbers carry disproportionate value.
Total points (Over/Under) is set by the bookmaker — e.g. 46.5 — and you wager whether the combined final score is higher or lower. Weather, pace of play and defensive quality all shift the true expected total.
BetEdge approach: we compute expected points added (EPA) per offensive and defensive play, adjust for opponent quality, rest advantage (teams on short weeks or off a bye), injury depth-chart data and game-time weather forecasts. When our probability differs from Pinnacle's closing line by more than our 2% post-tax threshold, a pick is published with the full model inputs logged before kick-off.