Our hockey model integrates xG-for/against, starting goaltender splits, recent line-shuffles and back-to-back schedule pressure. A pick publishes only when post-tax edge exceeds 2%.

NHLKHL

Live edges · 4

Pre-kickoff · audit-logged

NHLSolidLogged Jun 09, 07:30

Vegas Golden Knights vs Carolina Hurricanes

1X2 · away @ Matchbook

in 16m

live soon

Book odds

1.98

Pinnacle fair

1.93

Edge

+2.6%

Kelly ¼

0.66%

Pinnacle prices away at 1.930 while Matchbook offers 1.980 — a +2.59% mathematical edge after tax.

Open detail

NHLSolidLogged Jun 08, 07:30

Vegas Golden Knights vs Carolina Hurricanes

1X2 · home @ Matchbook

in 16m

live soon

Book odds

2.00

Pinnacle fair

1.93

Edge

+3.6%

Kelly ¼

0.91%

Pinnacle prices home at 1.930 while Matchbook offers 2.000 — a +3.63% mathematical edge after tax.

Open detail

NHLSolidLogged Jun 08, 07:30

Vegas Golden Knights vs Carolina Hurricanes

1X2 · home @ Smarkets

in 16m

live soon

Book odds

1.98

Pinnacle fair

1.93

Edge

+2.6%

Kelly ¼

0.66%

Pinnacle prices home at 1.930 while Smarkets offers 1.980 — a +2.59% mathematical edge after tax.

Open detail

NHLSmallLogged Jun 09, 07:30

Vegas Golden Knights vs Carolina Hurricanes

O/U · under_6 @ BetMGM

in 16m

live soon

Book odds

1.91

Pinnacle fair

1.87

Edge

+2.1%

Kelly ¼

0.59%

Pinnacle prices under_6 at 1.870 while BetMGM offers 1.910 — a +2.14% mathematical edge after tax.

Open detail

Recently settled · 5

Win + loss · no cherry-picking

NHLSolid Lost

Vegas Golden Knights vs Carolina Hurricanes

O/U · under_5.5 @ Matchbook

Jun 07

00:10

Book odds

2.10

Pinnacle fair

2.02

Edge

+4.0%

Kelly ¼

0.90%

SettledCLV−52.7%

-1.00u

Pinnacle prices under_5.5 at 2.020 while Matchbook offers 2.100 — a +3.96% mathematical edge after tax.

Open detail

NHLSolid Won

Vegas Golden Knights vs Carolina Hurricanes

1X2 · home @ Matchbook

Jun 07

00:10

Book odds

1.99

Pinnacle fair

1.93

Edge

+3.1%

Kelly ¼

0.79%

SettledCLV−3.5%

+0.99u

Pinnacle prices home at 1.930 while Matchbook offers 1.990 — a +3.11% mathematical edge after tax.

Open detail

NHLSmall Won

Vegas Golden Knights vs Carolina Hurricanes

1X2 · home @ Smarkets

Jun 07

00:10

Book odds

1.97

Pinnacle fair

1.93

Edge

+2.1%

Kelly ¼

0.53%

SettledCLV−3.5%

+0.97u

Pinnacle prices home at 1.930 while Smarkets offers 1.970 — a +2.07% mathematical edge after tax.

Open detail

NHLSmall Won

Carolina Hurricanes vs Vegas Golden Knights

1X2 · home @ Matchbook

Jun 05

00:20

Book odds

1.69

Pinnacle fair

1.65

Edge

+2.4%

Kelly ¼

0.88%

SettledCLV−1.4%

+0.69u

Pinnacle prices home at 1.650 while Matchbook offers 1.690 — a +2.42% mathematical edge after tax.

Open detail

NHLSolid Lost

Carolina Hurricanes vs Vegas Golden Knights

1X2 · away @ Matchbook

Jun 05

00:20

Book odds

2.42

Pinnacle fair

2.36

Edge

+2.5%

Kelly ¼

0.45%

SettledCLV−5.0%

-1.00u

Pinnacle prices away at 2.360 while Matchbook offers 2.420 — a +2.54% mathematical edge after tax.

Open detail

FAQ

Ice Hockey questions

How does BetEdge model goaltender performance in NHL picks?

Goaltender quality is the single largest variance driver in a hockey game. We use save percentage adjusted for shot quality (goals saved above expected, or GSAE) rather than raw save percentage, which is distorted by team-level shot suppression. Starting goaltender confirmation is required before a pick is published — we do not publish when the starter is listed as a game-time decision.

Does BetEdge factor in back-to-back games for NHL picks?

Yes. NHL teams can play on consecutive nights with cross-country travel, which meaningfully reduces goaltender efficiency and skater output. We apply a fatigue adjustment when a team is on the second night of a back-to-back, particularly when the first game went to overtime. This factor is one of the cleaner edges in the NHL market.

What is expected goals (xG) in hockey and why does it matter?

Hockey xG measures shot quality rather than shot volume. A slot shot from in tight carries a much higher expected goals value than a long-range point shot. Teams generating high-quality scoring chances but posting fewer actual goals tend to regress upwards over time. xG-for and xG-against rates are more predictive of future performance than raw Corsi or even actual goals.

Are NHL picks shown even if ROI is negative?

Yes. We publish every settled NHL result on /track-record with the raw ROI figure — positive or negative. Early-stage data carries a sample-size chip explaining that the results may not yet be statistically conclusive. Hiding any losing sport or period would contradict the transparency premise of the product.

What NHL markets does BetEdge focus on?

We primarily target moneyline (puck line +/- 1.5) and total-goals over/under markets, where Pinnacle's liquidity is deepest and the fair-value anchor is most reliable. Period and player-prop markets are not currently covered as the thinner liquidity makes Pinnacle anchoring less precise.

BetEdge is an analytics and decision-support tool — not a bookmaker and not a tipster service. We don't accept bets or hold funds. For educational and informational purposes only. 18+.

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