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Methodology · how the fair line is built

We sell accurate analysis, not picks.

Every edge BetEdge shows is the gap between the best price on the market and a fair price we compute from the sharpest line available. Here's exactly how that number is made — and how we hold ourselves accountable for it.

The pipeline

From 11 raw price feeds to one fair number

1

Pull live prices

We poll 11 sportsbooks on every scan, capturing each book's price side by side — the whole board from one moment, not one book at a time.

2

Anchor to the sharp line

Pinnacle moves on money, not opinion. Its line is the closest thing to the market’s true probability.

3

Strip the vig

We strip the margin with the bias-corrected Shin method — so longshots aren't over-priced — leaving the no-vig fair odds for each outcome.

4

Measure the edge

The best price across all books is compared to fair. A positive gap is a +EV edge, ranked and surfaced.

Worked example

Removing the vig, step by step

A book's two prices always imply more than 100% — that overround is the margin. We convert each price to an implied probability, normalise them back to 100%, and the result is the no-vig fair odds. The edge is simply the best market price measured against that fair number. The numbers below use the simple proportional version of that step; the scanner applies the bias-corrected Shin method to the same two steps.

1
Over 1.91 → implied 52.4% · Under 1.99 → implied 50.3%. Sum = 102.7%.
2
That extra 2.7% is the bookmaker’s margin (the vig).
3
Normalise: divide each by 1.027 → fair 51.0% / 49.0% → fair odds 1.96 / 2.04.
Over / Under 2.5 · Bet365
Raw two-way price2.7% vig
Over 2.5
1.91
implied 52.4%fair 51.0% · 1.96
Under 2.5
1.99
implied 50.3%fair 49.0% · 2.04
Best market price for Over is 1.97 at Betfair+2.6% edge
Accountability

How we know the model is honest

Graded

Calibration

We grade fair probabilities against settled outcomes in an append-only ledger.

Negative

Our own CLV, shown in red

Closing-line value is the only honest edge metric. Ours on the retired pick experiment was negative — and we publish it anyway.

100%

Results kept

Every pick is logged before kickoff in an append-only ledger. Wins, losses and mistakes all stay on the record.

What we deliberately don't do

We don't sell tips, guarantee profit, or hide losing results. The product is a live scanner and a calibrated fair line — what you do with it is your decision. Past performance is not a promise of future returns.

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