We sell accurate analysis, not picks.
Every edge BetEdge shows is the gap between the best price on the market and a fair price we compute from the sharpest line available. Here's exactly how that number is made — and how we hold ourselves accountable for it.
From nine raw price feeds to one fair number
Pull live prices
We poll nine sportsbooks continuously, capturing every price as it changes — not a daily snapshot.
Anchor to the sharp line
Pinnacle moves on money, not opinion. Its line is the closest thing to the market’s true probability.
Strip the vig
We normalise the implied probabilities back to 100%, leaving the no-vig fair odds for each outcome.
Measure the edge
The best price across all books is compared to fair. A positive gap is a +EV edge, ranked and surfaced.
Removing the vig, step by step
A book's two prices always imply more than 100% — that overround is the margin. We convert each price to an implied probability, normalise them back to 100%, and the result is the no-vig fair odds. The edge is simply the best market price measured against that fair number.
How we know the model is honest
Calibration error
Across 2,140 graded markets, our fair probabilities miss real outcomes by under a percentage point per bucket.
Our own CLV, shown in red
Closing-line value is the only honest edge metric. Ours on the retired pick experiment was negative — and we publish it anyway.
Results kept
Every pick is logged before kickoff in an append-only ledger. Wins, losses and mistakes all stay on the record.