Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Arsenal vs Burnley
EPL · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds28.0100
Pinnacle anchor25.9200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)3.86%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+8.1%
Edge (post-tax)+8.1%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.07%
Units (display)3u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Pinnacle closing line26.9100
CLV%-6.81%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Burnley at 28.01 on Smarkets shows an 8.1% edge versus Pinnacle's 3.64% implied probability, which derives from the sharpest odds in the market with minimal margin. Pinnacle's low-margin operation attracts professional action and eliminates juice, making their 25.92 reference point a reliable fair-value anchor for identifying mispricings elsewhere.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 25.9200 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 28.0100 |