Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Inter Milan vs Hellas Verona
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds12.5000
Pinnacle anchor11.3200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)8.83%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+10.4%
Edge (post-tax)+10.4%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.23%
Units (display)3u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Hellas Verona at 12.50 on Smarkets carries a 10.42% post-tax edge when anchored against Pinnacle's 11.32 fair value, indicating the away underdog is significantly underpriced relative to true probability (8.84% implied vs 8.83% fair). The 1.18-point overround gap between market and sharp consensus suggests recreational money has overweighted Inter Milan as heavy favorites, creating a structural inefficiency in the underdog pricing that favors backing Verona at current odds.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 11.3200 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 12.5000 |