Netherlands vs Japan

FIFA World Cup · Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC

Pick details

Market1X2 (H2H) — draw

BookmakerSmarkets

Book odds3.6500

Pinnacle anchor3.5400

Fair probability (Pinnacle)28.25%

Anchor sourcepinnacle

Edge (pre-tax)+3.1%

Edge (post-tax)+3.1%

Kelly fraction (quarter)0.29%

Units (display)1u

Published6/14/26, 7:30 AM

Result

OutcomeWon

Profit (units)+2.65u

Pinnacle closing line3.4900

CLV%-1.09%

Closing line statusCaptured

Settled at6/14/26, 10:01 PM

Reasoning(edge-engine-v1)

Pinnacle prices draw at 3.540 while Smarkets offers 3.650 — a +3.11% mathematical edge after tax.

Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit

pinnacle

bookmaker

Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.

Odds history (2 snapshots)

Timestamp	Source	Market	Selection	Odds	Closing
6/14/26, 7:30 AM	pinnacle	h2h	draw	3.5400
6/14/26, 7:30 AM	bookmaker	h2h	draw	3.6500