Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Inter Milan vs Hellas Verona
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerBetsson
Book odds12.5000
Pinnacle anchor11.3200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)8.83%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+10.4%
Edge (post-tax)+10.4%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.23%
Units (display)3u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Betsson's 12.50 for Hellas Verona away significantly overprices the underdog relative to Pinnacle's 11.32 fair value, offering a 10.42% post-tax edge on the selection. Inter Milan's home record and quality advantage justify Pinnacle's tighter odds, but Betsson's generous pricing on the away moneyline creates value for bettors accepting the higher variance inherent in backing the lighter side.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 11.3200 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 12.5000 |