Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Inter Milan vs Hellas Verona
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerTipico
Book odds7.0000
Pinnacle anchor6.5600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)15.24%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+6.7%
Edge (post-tax)+6.7%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.28%
Units (display)3u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+18.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Tipico's draw price of 7.00 versus Pinnacle's fair value of 6.56 implies an overround-adjusted edge of 6.71%, suggesting the market is underpricing draw outcomes in this matchup. Inter's dominant home record and Verona's defensive setup create legitimate draw probability that Tipico's odds fail to capture relative to sharper consensus. The positive expectation persists even after accounting for typical sportsbook juice, indicating material value at this price point.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 6.5600 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 7.0000 |