Settled
Free pick
Small
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
NBA · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerBetfair
Book odds1.4400
Pinnacle anchor1.4100
Fair probability (Pinnacle)70.92%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.1%
Edge (post-tax)+2.1%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.21%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.4500
CLV%-5.57%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Betfair's 1.44 on Thunder moneyline sits above Pinnacle's 1.41 fair value, offering a 2.13% post-tax edge where the book's implied probability of 69.4% underestimates Oklahoma City's true win probability of roughly 70.9% based on the sharp anchor. The margin between these two sportsbooks provides exploitable value in backing the home side at the longer odds offered by Betfair.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.4100 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 1.4400 |