Settled
Free pick
Solid
Arsenal vs Burnley
EPL · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds13.5000
Pinnacle anchor13.0600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)7.66%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.4%
Edge (post-tax)+3.4%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.07%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line12.6600
CLV%-0.19%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Arsenal vs Burnley draw at 13.50 on Smarkets shows positive expected value relative to Pinnacle's 13.06 fair value estimate. Pinnacle's low margin business model and heavy sharp action make it a reliable pricing anchor, and the 3.4% edge after accounting for Smarkets' tax represents a meaningful positive expectation. The odds suggest the market is underpricing draw probability compared to the true likelihood of this outcome.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 13.0600 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 13.5000 |