Settled
Strong
Key absenceAustralia vs Turkey
FIFA World Cup · Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 04:00 AM UTC
Match contextAI-analyzed
Recent form (last 5)
Australia
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Turkey
?????
H2H (last 10)
Generating context…
Key absences
Generating context…
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds5.4000
Pinnacle anchor5.1600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)19.38%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+4.7%
Edge (post-tax)+4.7%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.26%
Units (display)2u
Published6/13/26, 7:30 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+8.80u
Pinnacle closing line5.5000
CLV%-9.97%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at6/14/26, 6:01 AM
Reasoning(edge-engine-v1)
Pinnacle prices home at 5.160 while Smarkets offers 5.400 — a +4.65% mathematical edge after tax.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/13/26, 7:30 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 5.1600 | |
| 6/13/26, 7:30 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 5.4000 |