Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Como vs Parma
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerTipico
Book odds12.0000
Pinnacle anchor10.6700
Fair probability (Pinnacle)9.37%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+12.5%
Edge (post-tax)+12.5%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.28%
Units (display)3u
Published5/16/26, 3:51 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Parma away at 12.00 on Tipico carries significant edge against Pinnacle's 10.67 fair value estimate, representing a 12.5% mathematical advantage after tax. Pinnacle's sharp betting pool and minimal margins make their odds a reliable anchor for identifying mispriced opportunities in secondary markets. The discrepancy suggests Tipico's market is undervaluing the away side relative to the true probability distribution.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 3:51 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 10.6700 | |
| 5/16/26, 3:51 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 12.0000 |