Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds2.1000
Pinnacle anchor1.9600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)51.02%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+7.1%
Edge (post-tax)+7.1%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.62%
Units (display)3u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+3.30u
Pinnacle closing line1.9900
CLV%-4.34%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Chelsea at 2.10 on Matchbook offers clear positive expected value against Pinnacle's 1.96 fair line, representing a 7.14% post-tax edge that reflects meaningful mispricing in the home side. The implied probability differential (47.6% at 2.10 vs 51.0% at 1.96) suggests Matchbook's market is underweighting Chelsea's home advantage and recent form relative to the sharp consensus. This edge persists after accounting for the platform's tax structure, indicating sustained exploitability in the pricing.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.9600 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 2.1000 |