Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Inter Milan vs Hellas Verona
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerSky Bet
Book odds7.0000
Pinnacle anchor6.5600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)15.24%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+6.7%
Edge (post-tax)+6.7%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.28%
Units (display)3u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+18.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Sky Bet's 7.00 odds on the draw overvalues this outcome by 6.71% post-tax relative to Pinnacle's 6.56 fair value, translating to an implied probability of 14.29% versus the market's 14.86% for Sky Bet. Inter Milan's dominance at home and Verona's defensive setup create a structural lean toward either team winning, but the overround on the draw at Sky Bet versus sharper closing odds presents quantifiable positive expectation for this selection.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 6.5600 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 7.0000 |