Settled
Big edge
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds4.1000
Pinnacle anchor3.8300
Fair probability (Pinnacle)26.11%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+7.0%
Edge (post-tax)+7.0%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.57%
Units (display)3u
Published5/19/26, 8:26 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.8300
CLV%-2.87%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(edge-engine-v1)
Pinnacle prices away at 3.830 while Smarkets offers 4.100 — a +7.05% mathematical edge after tax.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/19/26, 8:26 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 3.8300 | |
| 5/19/26, 8:26 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 4.1000 |