Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds5.7000
Pinnacle anchor4.9600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)20.16%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+14.9%
Edge (post-tax)+14.9%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.79%
Units (display)3u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Nottingham Forest at 5.70 on Matchbook represents a significant edge relative to Pinnacle's 4.96 fair value estimate, translating to approximately 14.9% positive expected value after accounting for standard betting taxes. Pinnacle's low-margin business model and substantial sharp action make their odds a reliable benchmark for identifying mispricings in the broader market. The 15% gap suggests Matchbook's odds have yet to adjust to the true probability of an away victory.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 4.9600 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 5.7000 |