Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Arsenal vs Burnley
EPL · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerNordicBet
Book odds36.0000
Pinnacle anchor25.9200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)3.86%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+38.9%
Edge (post-tax)+38.9%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.28%
Units (display)3u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Pinnacle closing line26.9100
CLV%-6.81%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's 25.92 fair value for Burnley represents a probability of approximately 3.86%, derived from their characteristically low margins and sharp market pricing. NordicBet's 36.00 odds imply only a 2.78% probability, creating a 38.9% edge after accounting for tax, indicating significant overround in the away price. The discrepancy suggests NordicBet's market has not yet aligned with the sharper consensus reflected in Pinnacle's liquidity-driven pricing.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 25.9200 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 36.0000 |