Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Inter Milan vs Hellas Verona
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerTAB AU
Book odds12.0000
Pinnacle anchor11.3200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)8.83%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+6.0%
Edge (post-tax)+6.0%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.14%
Units (display)3u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
TAB AU's 12.00 on Hellas Verona represents a 5.99% overround versus Pinnacle's 11.32 fair value, creating a post-tax edge of 6.01% after accounting for Australian tax treatment. Inter Milan's dominance at home (ranked top 3 in Serie A) combined with Verona's poor away record (1 win in last 12 matches) suggests Pinnacle's pricing correctly values the away win near 8.8%, making TAB's 8.3% implied probability a significant mispricing favoring the underdog.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 11.3200 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 12.0000 |