Settled
Free pick
Strong
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
NBA · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerDraftKings
Book odds3.1500
Pinnacle anchor3.0200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)33.11%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+4.3%
Edge (post-tax)+4.3%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.50%
Units (display)2u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+4.30u
Pinnacle closing line2.9400
CLV%-0.25%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
DraftKings offers 3.15 on San Antonio at away despite Pinnacle's fair value settling at 3.02, creating a +4.30% post-tax edge for the visitor. The 4.3% differential suggests meaningful mispricing in the Spurs' favor relative to the sharpest market consensus, with DraftKings' line failing to fully account for San Antonio's actual win probability at approximately 33.1% implied by Pinnacle's pricing.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 3.0200 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 3.1500 |