Settled
Free pick
Strong
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerBetsson
Book odds5.2000
Pinnacle anchor4.9600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)20.16%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+4.8%
Edge (post-tax)+4.8%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.29%
Units (display)2u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-2.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Nottingham Forest at 5.20 on Betsson shows 4.8% edge relative to Pinnacle's 4.96 fair value, suggesting mispricing in the away side's favor. Pinnacle's extremely low margins and professional action make their odds a reliable anchor for identifying value across slower-moving books. The discrepancy indicates either Betsson has slower liquidity or different liability management compared to the sharpest market.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 4.9600 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 5.2000 |