Settled
Free pick
Small
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerMarathonbet
Book odds3.6600
Pinnacle anchor3.5800
Fair probability (Pinnacle)27.93%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.2%
Edge (post-tax)+2.2%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.21%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.8300
CLV%-9.21%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Marathonbet offers 3.66 for Tottenham away against Chelsea, representing a 27.32% implied probability, while Pinnacle's fair value of 3.58 implies 27.93%, creating a 0.61 percentage point gap favoring the selection. After accounting for typical sportsbook taxation of approximately 4-5%, the position retains a meaningful 2.23% post-tax edge, indicating Marathonbet's odds are overvaluing the away side relative to the market consensus by a quantifiable margin.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 3.5800 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 3.6600 |