Settled
Solid
Arsenal vs Burnley
EPL · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerSky Bet
Book odds13.0000
Pinnacle anchor12.5200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)7.99%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.8%
Edge (post-tax)+3.8%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.08%
Units (display)1u
Published5/18/26, 7:54 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line12.6600
CLV%-4.32%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(edge-engine-v1)
Pinnacle prices draw at 12.520 while Sky Bet offers 13.000 — a +3.83% mathematical edge after tax.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/18/26, 7:54 AM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 12.5200 | |
| 5/18/26, 7:54 AM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 13.0000 |