Settled
Small
Key absenceMexico vs South Africa
FIFA World Cup · Thursday, June 11, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
Match contextAI-analyzed
Recent form (last 5)
Mexico
?????
South Africa
?????
H2H (last 10)
Generating context…
Key absences
Generating context…
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerBetMGM
Book odds1.4400
Pinnacle anchor1.4100
Fair probability (Pinnacle)70.92%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.1%
Edge (post-tax)+2.1%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.21%
Units (display)1u
Published6/9/26, 7:30 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+0.44u
Pinnacle closing line1.4500
CLV%-3.88%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at6/11/26, 10:01 PM
Reasoning(edge-engine-v1)
Pinnacle prices home at 1.410 while BetMGM offers 1.440 — a +2.13% mathematical edge after tax.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/9/26, 7:30 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.4100 | |
| 6/9/26, 7:30 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 1.4400 |