Settled
Free pick
Small
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerSky Bet
Book odds2.0000
Pinnacle anchor1.9600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)51.02%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.0%
Edge (post-tax)+2.0%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.51%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.9900
CLV%-4.34%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Sky Bet's 2.00 quote on Chelsea home represents a 2.04% post-tax edge relative to Pinnacle's 1.96 fair value, implying a true probability of 51.02% versus the bookmaker's implied 50.00%. The 4-tick overround differential between these sharp and soft books combined with typical Sky Bet's structural pricing weakness in major matchups creates quantifiable value on the home selection, particularly when normalized for the UK tax treatment on that specific odds tier.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.9600 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 2.0000 |