Settled
Free pick
Solid
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
NBA · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds3.2000
Pinnacle anchor3.1100
Fair probability (Pinnacle)32.15%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.9%
Edge (post-tax)+2.9%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.33%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+2.20u
Pinnacle closing line2.9400
CLV%+2.72%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Smarkets prices Oklahoma City at 3.20 versus Pinnacle's fair value of 3.11, creating a 2.89% post-tax edge on the away moneyline. The Thunder's superior depth, defensive efficiency ranking, and recent form against bottom-tier competition like San Antonio suggests Pinnacle's midpoint undervalues their win probability by approximately 30 basis points. This represents a clean arbitrage opportunity where the consensus market has failed to fully adjust for the significant talent disparity between these franchises.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 3.1100 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 3.2000 |