Settled
Free pick
Small
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerCoral
Book odds2.0000
Pinnacle anchor1.9600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)51.02%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.0%
Edge (post-tax)+2.0%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.51%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.9900
CLV%-4.34%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Coral's 2.00 odds on Chelsea home represent a 2.04% edge when compared against Pinnacle's 1.96 fair value anchor, implying true probability of 51.02% versus the market-implied 50.00%. The four-basis-point discrepancy between Coral's decimal odds and Pinnacle's sharp assessment indicates mispricing in Chelsea's favor despite identical underlying win probability estimates being extraordinarily tight.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.9600 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 2.0000 |