Settled
Free pick
Solid
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerBetfair
Book odds4.5000
Pinnacle anchor4.3400
Fair probability (Pinnacle)23.04%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.7%
Edge (post-tax)+3.7%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.26%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Betfair's 4.50 on the draw carries a 22.2% implied probability versus Pinnacle's 4.34 fair value which prices it at 23.1%, creating a 0.9 percentage point gap that translates to a 3.69% post-tax edge. Manchester United's recent form volatility and Nottingham Forest's defensive solidity support a higher draw probability than Betfair's shorter odds reflect, with the 4.50 quote appearing soft relative to the true distributional weight on this outcome.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 4.3400 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 4.5000 |