Settled
Free pick
Strong
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
NBA · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerLadbrokes
Book odds3.2000
Pinnacle anchor3.0200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)33.11%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+6.0%
Edge (post-tax)+6.0%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.68%
Units (display)2u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+4.40u
Pinnacle closing line2.9400
CLV%-0.25%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Ladbrokes prices OKC at 3.20 against a Pinnacle fair value of 3.02, creating a 5.96% post-tax edge for the away selection. The Thunder are overpriced by approximately 18 basis points in implied probability (31.25% at Ladbrokes vs 33.11% at Pinnacle), suggesting significant value exists in backing Oklahoma City at the offered odds. This discrepancy between the soft bookmaker and the sharp closing line provides quantifiable positive expected value.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 3.0200 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 3.2000 |