Settled
Free pick
Small
Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 12:10 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds2.7000
Pinnacle anchor2.6400
Fair probability (Pinnacle)37.88%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.3%
Edge (post-tax)+2.3%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.33%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+1.70u
Pinnacle closing line2.6400
CLV%-2.74%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Matchbook's 2.70 on Cleveland represents a 3.70% overround versus Pinnacle's 2.64 fair value (1.96% vig), creating positive expected value for the away selection. After accounting for typical Matchbook commission structure, the post-tax edge of 2.27% reflects a genuine +EV opportunity where the market mispriced the Cavaliers relative to the sharp consensus line.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 2.6400 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 2.7000 |