Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Inter Milan vs Hellas Verona
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerTipico
Book odds12.0000
Pinnacle anchor11.3200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)8.83%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+6.0%
Edge (post-tax)+6.0%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.14%
Units (display)3u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Tipico's 12.00 for Hellas Verona away significantly overestimates the true probability relative to Pinnacle's 11.32 fair value anchor, which implies approximately 8.83% win probability versus the 8.33% that Tipico's odds suggest. The 68 basis point gap between the two odds translates to a 6.01% post-tax edge, indicating Tipico has materially mispriced the underdog proposition in this Inter Milan matchup.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 11.3200 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 12.0000 |