Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerBetfair
Book odds5.6000
Pinnacle anchor4.9600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)20.16%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+12.9%
Edge (post-tax)+12.9%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.70%
Units (display)3u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's low-margin book positions the fair value for Nottingham Forest at 4.96, implying approximately a 20.2% implied probability. The Betfair odds of 5.60 offer an edge of 12.9% after accounting for tax, suggesting meaningful value relative to the Pinnacle anchor. Given Pinnacle's reputation as a sharp market with minimal overround and high-volume professional action, this discrepancy points to a material pricing inefficiency favoring the away selection.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 4.9600 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 5.6000 |