Settled
Free pick
Solid
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
NBA · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerTAB AU
Book odds3.1000
Pinnacle anchor3.0200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)33.11%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.6%
Edge (post-tax)+2.6%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.32%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+2.10u
Pinnacle closing line2.9400
CLV%-0.25%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
TAB AU's 3.10 for Thunder away provides a 2.65% edge post-tax compared to Pinnacle's 3.02 fair value, representing a meaningful overround discrepancy on the moneyline. The 0.08 decimal gap translates to approximately 32 basis points of value, with Oklahoma City's superior defensive rating and recent form against San Antonio's depth issues creating a structural advantage that the market has underpriced relative to the consensus sharp line.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 3.0200 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 3.1000 |