Settled
Free pick
Solid
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerBetfair
Book odds3.7000
Pinnacle anchor3.5800
Fair probability (Pinnacle)27.93%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.4%
Edge (post-tax)+3.4%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.31%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.8300
CLV%-9.21%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Tottenham is quoted at 3.70 on Betfair against a Pinnacle fair value of 3.58, creating a 3.35% edge when accounting for standard exchange commission. The away side commands approximately 27.9% implied probability at the offered odds versus 27.9% at fair value, with the bookmaker's line sitting meaningfully soft on the visiting team relative to the sharpest market consensus.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 3.5800 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 3.7000 |