Settled
Free pick
Solid
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerBetMGM
Book odds1.8000
Pinnacle anchor1.7400
Fair probability (Pinnacle)57.47%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.5%
Edge (post-tax)+3.5%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.08%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.6400
CLV%+2.71%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
BetMGM's 1.80 line on Manchester City represents a 55.56% implied probability versus Pinnacle's 1.74 anchor which prices the away win at 57.47%, creating a 1.91 percentage point gap in the true probability assessment. After accounting for a 5% tax structure on winnings, the effective return grows to 1.71x, which translates to a post-tax edge of 3.45% relative to the fair value baseline. The discrepancy suggests BetMGM is materially undervaluing City's win probability compared to the sharpest market consensus.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 1.7400 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 1.8000 |