Bournemouth vs Manchester City

Betfair's 4.50 on Bournemouth represents a 22.2% implied probability while Pinnacle's 4.19 fair value suggests the true probability sits at 23.9%, indicating the home side is underpriced by approximately 170 basis points. After accounting for typical Betfair exchange tax of 5%, the post-tax edge of 7.40% demonstrates sufficient margin to overcome long-run variance and book commissions, with the discrepancy likely reflecting overround adjustment rather than sophisticated market repricing.