Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Arsenal vs Burnley
EPL · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds29.0000
Pinnacle anchor25.9200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)3.86%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+11.9%
Edge (post-tax)+11.9%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.11%
Units (display)3u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Pinnacle closing line26.9100
CLV%-6.81%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's 25.92 fair value for Burnley represents the consensus of the sharpest bettors in the market, built on their characteristically low 2% margin. Matchbook's 29.00 offers an 11.9% edge after accounting for platform fees, indicating significant mispricing relative to that sharp consensus. The substantial gap between the available odds and the fair value suggests inefficient market pricing in this fixture.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 25.9200 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 29.0000 |