Settled
Free pick
Solid
Arsenal vs Burnley
EPL · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds1.1100
Pinnacle anchor1.0800
Fair probability (Pinnacle)92.59%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.8%
Edge (post-tax)+2.8%
Kelly fraction (quarter)6.31%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+0.11u
Pinnacle closing line1.0900
CLV%-4.14%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Arsenal at 1.11 on Matchbook shows positive expected value when anchored against Pinnacle's 1.08 fair line, reflecting a 2.8% edge after accounting for tax. Pinnacle's tight margins and professional action make it a reliable baseline for identifying mispriced odds, and in this case Matchbook's price has drifted sufficiently away from true probability to represent quantifiable positive expectancy.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.0800 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 1.1100 |