Settled
Free pick
Solid
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
NBA · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerLadbrokes AU
Book odds3.1000
Pinnacle anchor3.0200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)33.11%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.6%
Edge (post-tax)+2.6%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.32%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+2.10u
Pinnacle closing line2.9400
CLV%-0.25%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Ladbrokes AU offers 3.10 on San Antonio as away underdog compared to Pinnacle's 3.02 fair value, representing a 2.65% positive variance after accounting for Australian tax obligations. The 0.08 odds differential translates to approximately 27 basis points of theoretical edge, suggesting the market has modestly underestimated Spurs' winning probability at 33.1% implied versus the 33.1% fair benchmark, creating a quantifiable deviation exploitable through volume.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 3.0200 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 3.1000 |