Settled
Free pick
Strong
Arsenal vs Burnley
EPL · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
Pick details
MarketOver/Under — over_3.5
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds1.9600
Pinnacle anchor1.8700
Fair probability (Pinnacle)53.48%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+4.8%
Edge (post-tax)+4.8%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.25%
Units (display)2u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-2.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.9900
CLV%-54.48%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Arsenal vs Burnley over 3.5 goals shows a 4.8% edge after tax when compared to Pinnacle's 1.87 fair value estimate. Pinnacle's low-margin model and sharp action from professional bettors make their odds a reliable probability anchor, suggesting Matchbook's 1.96 overvalues the likelihood of four or more goals in this fixture. The positive edge indicates the pick has mathematical value relative to market consensus.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | totals | over_3.5 | 1.8700 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | totals | over_3.5 | 1.9600 |