Settled
Free pick
Solid
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
NBA · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerBetr AU
Book odds3.1000
Pinnacle anchor3.0200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)33.11%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.6%
Edge (post-tax)+2.6%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.32%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+2.10u
Pinnacle closing line2.9400
CLV%-0.25%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Betr AU offers 3.10 on San Antonio as the away underdog versus Oklahoma City, pricing them at an implied 32.26% win probability, while Pinnacle's 3.02 fair value suggests the true probability sits at approximately 33.11%. The 81 basis point overround discrepancy combined with Betr AU's typically softer market compared to sharp closing lines creates a quantifiable 2.65% post-tax edge for backing the Spurs at the offered odds.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 3.0200 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 3.1000 |