Settled
Free pick
Strong
Como vs Parma
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerTipico
Book odds6.5000
Pinnacle anchor6.2300
Fair probability (Pinnacle)16.05%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+4.3%
Edge (post-tax)+4.3%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.20%
Units (display)2u
Published5/16/26, 3:51 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-2.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's fair value of 6.23 on a Como-Parma draw, derived from their notoriously tight margins and sharp market action, suggests the true probability sits around 16.0 percent. Tipico's 6.50 offer creates a 4.3 percent edge after accounting for taxation, indicating the draw is underpriced relative to where the sharpest operators have settled the line. This discrepancy reflects meaningful value when comparing recreational to professional market consensus.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 3:51 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 6.2300 | |
| 5/16/26, 3:51 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 6.5000 |