Settled
Free pick
Solid
Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 12:10 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds1.5800
Pinnacle anchor1.5300
Fair probability (Pinnacle)65.36%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.3%
Edge (post-tax)+3.3%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.41%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.5400
CLV%-3.37%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Matchbook offers 1.58 on Detroit home while Pinnacle's sharp consensus values this at 1.53, representing a 3.27% post-tax positive deviation for the pick. The 5-cent overround differential (1.58 vs 1.53) exceeds typical juice structures and reflects genuine line value rather than movement noise. This quantifies a measurable edge where the home pick is priced above its true probability baseline established by the sharpest market.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.5300 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 1.5800 |