Settled
Free pick
Solid
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds4.3000
Pinnacle anchor4.1900
Fair probability (Pinnacle)23.87%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.6%
Edge (post-tax)+2.6%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.20%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+3.30u
Pinnacle closing line4.5900
CLV%-11.63%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Smarkets is pricing the draw at 4.30 (23.26% implied probability) while Pinnacle's sharp closing line sits at 4.19 (23.89% implied probability), creating a 63 basis point gap in the selection's favor. After accounting for Smarkets' 2% commission on winning bets, the position yields a +2.63% expected value edge based on the Pinnacle anchor as the market consensus.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 4.1900 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 4.3000 |