Settled
Strong
Arsenal vs Burnley
EPL · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
Pick details
MarketOver/Under — under_3.5
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds1.9700
Pinnacle anchor1.8800
Fair probability (Pinnacle)53.19%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+4.8%
Edge (post-tax)+4.8%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.23%
Units (display)2u
Published5/18/26, 7:54 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+1.94u
Pinnacle closing line1.8800
CLV%-51.56%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(edge-engine-v1)
Pinnacle prices under_3.5 at 1.880 while Matchbook offers 1.970 — a +4.79% mathematical edge after tax.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/18/26, 7:54 AM | pinnacle | totals | under_3.5 | 1.8800 | |
| 5/18/26, 7:54 AM | bookmaker | totals | under_3.5 | 1.9700 |