Settled
Free pick
Solid
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds3.7000
Pinnacle anchor3.5800
Fair probability (Pinnacle)27.93%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.4%
Edge (post-tax)+3.4%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.31%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.8300
CLV%-9.21%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Tottenham away at 3.70 on Matchbook presents a quantitative edge against Pinnacle's 3.58 fair value, generating approximately 3.35% post-tax value for a player operating at standard UK betting tax rates. The 3.3% gap between Matchbook's implied probability (27.0%) and Pinnacle's (27.9%) suggests the market has underpriced away value in this fixture, with Tottenham's odds offering sufficient margin above the sharpest consensus line to justify selection from a long-term expected value perspective.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 3.5800 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 3.7000 |