Settled
Free pick
Solid
Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 12:10 AM UTC
Pick details
MarketOver/Under — over_206.5
BookmakerDraftKings
Book odds1.9500
Pinnacle anchor1.8800
Fair probability (Pinnacle)53.19%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.7%
Edge (post-tax)+3.7%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.98%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+0.95u
Pinnacle closing line1.8800
CLV%-51.52%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
DraftKings offers 1.95 on over 206.5 versus Pinnacle's 1.88 fair value, creating a 3.72% post-tax edge by backing the over. The Pistons rank 8th in pace and 6th in offensive rating while Cleveland sits 2nd in pace, suggesting the game environment favors elevated scoring; DraftKings' line appears to underweight this offensive volume dynamic compared to Pinnacle's consensus pricing. This 70-basis-point odds differential reflects meaningful mispricing in the totals market for this matchup.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | totals | over_206.5 | 1.8800 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | totals | over_206.5 | 1.9500 |