Settled
Free pick
Small
Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 12:10 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerBetfair
Book odds2.7000
Pinnacle anchor2.6400
Fair probability (Pinnacle)37.88%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.3%
Edge (post-tax)+2.3%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.33%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+1.70u
Pinnacle closing line2.6400
CLV%-2.74%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Betfair's 2.70 on Cleveland represents a 3.70% overround, while Pinnacle's 2.64 fair value implies the true probability is approximately 37.88%, creating a 2.27% post-tax edge for the away selection. The 6-tick gap between Betfair and Pinnacle suggests the market has underestimated Cleveland's win probability, with Betfair's odds offering sufficient margin above the sharpest available pricing to justify the positive expected value differential.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 2.6400 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 2.7000 |