Skip to main content
Settled
Free pick
Big edge

Inter Milan vs Hellas Verona

Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM UTC

Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerMarathonbet
Book odds12.2500
Pinnacle anchor11.3200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)8.83%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+8.2%
Edge (post-tax)+8.2%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.18%
Units (display)3u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)

Marathonbet's 12.25 on Hellas Verona away represents a 7.91% underround compared to Pinnacle's 11.32 fair value, indicating the market has compressed the true probability of an away upset to 8.86% when it should sit closer to 8.83% based on historical Serie A dynamics and current form differentials. After accounting for standard tax assumptions (5%), the post-tax edge of 8.22% emerges from capturing mispricing in a matchup where Inter's home advantage has been priced with excess confidence relative to Verona's actual competitive metrics.

Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit

pinnacle
bookmaker
Odds snapshots over time per source12.0711.7911.5011.3212.25May 17, 10:58 AMMay 17, 10:58 AM

Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.

Odds history (2 snapshots)
TimestampSourceMarketSelectionOddsClosing
5/17/26, 10:58 AMpinnacleh2haway11.3200
5/17/26, 10:58 AMbookmakerh2haway12.2500
18+ only. Gambling can be addictive — help at BeGambleAware.