Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Arsenal vs Burnley
EPL · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerBetfair
Book odds14.0000
Pinnacle anchor13.0600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)7.66%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+7.2%
Edge (post-tax)+7.2%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.14%
Units (display)3u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Pinnacle closing line12.6600
CLV%-0.19%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's fair value of 13.06 suggests the true probability of a draw is around 7.7%, while Betfair's 14.00 odds imply 7.1%. The 7.2% edge after tax indicates Betfair is underpricing the draw relative to Pinnacle's assessment. Pinnacle functions as a reliable anchor here due to its near-zero margin and exposure to the sharpest professional bettors, making its pricing more resistant to mispricing than recreational sportsbooks.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 13.0600 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 14.0000 |