Settled
Free pick
Solid
Pisa vs Napoli
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerTipico
Book odds8.5000
Pinnacle anchor8.2000
Fair probability (Pinnacle)12.20%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.7%
Edge (post-tax)+3.7%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.12%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 3:51 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pisa at 8.50 on Tipico carries a 3.7% edge over Pinnacle's 8.20 fair value, where sharp money efficiently prices outcomes with minimal margins. The odds gap suggests Tipico's longer line reflects either genuine inefficiency or higher margin structure, making Pinnacle's assessment the more reliable baseline for probability calibration.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 3:51 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 8.2000 | |
| 5/16/26, 3:51 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 8.5000 |